There is no doubt that resilience is a key concern for the UK Government in the face of today’s geopolitical and geo-economic challenges. Whether it’s the war in Ukraine, the risk of conflict with Russia, China’s military growth and expansive rhetoric, or transnational challenges such as climate change and terrorism by non-state actors, the requirement to support our allies while also ensuring our own resilience is both urgent and imperative.

I think it is unsurprising that there is increasing concern around the huge amount of equipment, vehicles and ammunition being used in the war in Ukraine, and the impact that this consumption is having on munition supplies in the West.

The UK is one of the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine, second only to the US. It committed £2.3bn in military assistance in 2022 and has committed to matching or exceeding this in 2023 – while the US has committed more than $42bn in military aid. Meanwhile, estimates of Russian ammunition consumption suggest that it may be firing up to 7,176 artillery rounds a day. 

At a roundtable event in November 2022, Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, told reporters that “there’s no question” the weapons pipeline to Ukraine has put pressure on the stockpiles and industrial base of the US, as well as its allies.

I am witnessing first-hand how the ongoing conflict has sparked a step-change in the conversation around the need for rapid rearmament – firstly, to ensure a continued pipeline of complex weapon systems and ammunition to Ukraine, but also to ensure that our UK stockpiles and replenishment capacity remain at a level that represents a credible deterrent to hostile states.

The Ministry of Defence’s (MOD) Land Industrial Strategy makes it clear that, in equipping UK forces with the technology and tools they require to defend the nation’s interests, speed is critical. One extract that summarises it best, in my view, states that ‘At its heart, the LIS seeks to advance equipment onto the frontline more quickly than we have previously managed.’ This point was also further emphasised in the recent Defence Command Paper Refresh, stating that a wait for 100% may take too long and sacrifice ‘strategic advantage’.

The goal is clear – the UK needs to replenish its stockpiles, while also supporting its allies. How we make this happen, however, presents a number of challenges:

The Challenges for Industry

Manufacturing for small production outputs

My view is that defence manufacturing, in its current state, is best suited to peacekeeping times. If we examine the current approach in the context of today’s geopolitical context, it is not as efficient and effective model as required. Existing manufacturing processes and supply chains are generally set up for relatively limited production runs to provide the stock levels that the MOD is willing to pay for. This means significant time and investment is needed to reset the defence industrial base to meet the increased platform and complex weapon system consumption rates that warfighting requires.

Stop-start procurement cycles

Ten-year, single solution acquisition cycles create a ‘feast and famine’ environment of large orders followed by long periods with none. This places a huge strain on manufacturers who can only survive by securing export contracts or diversifying their production into more certain income streams.

The long periods between orders mean that when a new order comes in, both supply chains and the expertise needed to fulfil orders may no longer exist. Added to this, certain materials may also no longer be available. Being able to appropriately resource the delivery of a contract is critical and I believe that there is significant room for development in relation to the current procurement approach.

Longer term, decade-long procurement cycles also make it more difficult to innovate and invest in emerging technologies, which adversely affects an organisation’s ability to compete for skilled employees in a highly competitive market.

Global competition for materials and talent

The global nature of today’s supply chain creates greater competition for niche components and means that small order numbers by the defence industry are liable to be swamped by larger orders from commercial customers, who are more attractive to suppliers because of their ability to place regular orders.

The increasing level of global competition also applies to talent. Where applicants have historically tended to apply to jobs closer to home, there are increasingly opportunities to work remotely or abroad, which means that any skilled workers that could add value to our industry have more employment options available to them than ever before. Ensuring a pipeline of talent is critical to the future of the defence industry and our nation’s resilience.

New Ways of Working Can Overcome These Challenges

Although these challenges are significant, I do not believe that they are insurmountable. I am confident that by working in partnership, industry, the MOD and the Government can find new ways of working that accelerate complex weapons production and give us the resilience needed to enable the Army to perform to the bets of its ability.

In part two of this article, I will share my views on what I believe is needed to address these challenges.